With just three days to go before New York City voters head to the polls, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani remains the frontrunner across most polls.
Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa have ramped up campaign activity in the final days, chasing what appears to be a narrowing path.
Cuomo, a former governor running as a centrist alternative, has positioned himself as the experienced hand capable of steadying the city, while Mamdani has leaned into his identity as a grassroots progressive championing structural reform in what has become an unusually charged mayoral race.
Mamdani was averaging a 16.5-point lead on Cuomo across eight major surveys as of Thursday, according to polling aggregator RealClear Polling. Newsweek has broken them down below.
Why It Matters
The 2025 mayoral race has been very ideologically divided. Mamdani, a state assemblyman, rose to prominence as a democratic socialist with backing from major progressive groups. Cuomo has sought to galvanize moderates and disaffected Democrats, casting Mamdani as inexperienced and “radical.” Sliwa, a longtime media personality and founder of the Guardian Angels, is running a law-and-order campaign that has remained largely stalled in the polls.
This election is also viewed as a bellwether for the national direction of the Democratic Party, as both Mamdani and Cuomo represent diverging visions for the future of urban governance.
Mamdani Holds Steady Lead
Polls released in the final stretch of the race show Democrat Zohran Mamdani maintaining a double-digit lead over independent Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa, with Mamdani’s average support at 46.6 percent, Cuomo’s at 30.1 percent and Sliwa’s at 16.5 percent.
A new survey by The Hill/Emerson conducted from October 25 to 28 found Mamdani with 50 percent support, compared to 25 percent for Cuomo and 21 percent for Sliwa—a 25-point margin.
Other recent polls show narrower, but still comfortable, advantages: Marist has Mamdani up by 16 points (48 percent on Cuomo’s 32 percent and Sliwa’s 16 percent), Quinnipiac and Suffolk by 10 (Quinnipiac: 43 percent on Cuomo’s 33 percent and Sliwa’s 16 percent, Suffolk: 44 percent over Cuomo’s 34 percent and Sliwa’s 11 percent) and Manhattan Institute by 15 (46 percent over Cuomo’s 31 percent and Sliwa’s 21 percent).
Victory Insights has given Mamdani an 18-point lead (47 percent over Cuomo’s 29 percent and Sliwa’s 16 percent) while AARP has Mamdani up 14 points (43 percent over Cuomo’s 29 percent and Sliwa’s 19 percent).
Fox News has Mamdani up by 24 points – 53 percent compared to Cuomo’s 28 percent and Sliwa’s 14 percent.
Independent candidate former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa and Democratic candidate Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani partici…
Mamdani’s Base
Mamdani’s strength in the race rests on a coalition of younger voters and communities of color that appears to be solidifying in the campaign’s final days.
According to Hill/Emerson College polling, Mamdani has surged to 71 percent support among Black voters—up from 50 percent just a month ago—while Andrew Cuomo has lost ground in that same group, dropping 10 points.
Mamdani also dominates among voters under 50, with 69 percent backing him, compared to just 37 percent among those over 50.
His support is particularly strong among early voters, 58 percent of whom say they have already cast a ballot for him, compared to 25 percent for Cuomo.
That margin narrows slightly among those yet to vote, but Mamdani still leads by 19 points. He also remains the most favorably viewed candidate in the race, with 52 percent of likely voters holding a favorable opinion of him—well ahead of Cuomo at 35 percent and Curtis Sliwa at 27.
As voters cite threats to democracy, the economy, and housing affordability as their top concerns, Mamdani’s broad appeal across key demographic groups is helping to sustain his lead.
Mamdani And Republicans
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted that Mamdani’s campaign constitutes a radical threat to the city and has threatened to withhold federal funding should he win.
“He is going to have problems with Washington like no Mayor in the history of our once great City…He won’t be getting any of [the money], so what’s the point of voting for him?” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Meanwhile, other Republicans think a win for Mamdani will do them favors in the next election, predicting that what he does in New York will put voters off the Democratic Party.
“The Republican Party will accurately portray Mamdani as the new face of the Democratic Party and emblematic of the extreme, leftist and socialist direction of the Democrats,” GOP strategist Adolfo Franco previously told Newsweek. “By comparison, Bernie Sanders and AOC appear moderate to most Americans. His election will alarm the majority of centrists in the country and alienate those voters.”
What Happens Next
The race will be decided on Tuesday, November 4, with polls set to close at 9 p.m. ET. Incumbent Eric Adams will serve the remainder of his term in office, which ends on
