After suffering a tough 22-19 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 11, the Kansas City Chiefs are now sitting at 5-5. Despite the setback, the team still has seven games left in the 2025 season, and the road to the playoffs is far from out of reach.
Next up, the Chiefs will face the Indianapolis Colts at home at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, followed by a Thanksgiving night showdown with the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. The remaining schedule includes home games against the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers, road trips to Nashville for a matchup with the Tennessee Titans, and a return to Arrowhead for a final home game against the Broncos. The season wraps up with a road contest at Allegiant Stadium against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Let’s break down where the Chiefs currently stand in the playoff race, using The Athletic’s updated playoff calculator to project the team’s potential path forward.
Current Playoff Picture
As of now, Kansas City has a 57% chance of making the playoffs (down from 75% last week). Their odds of winning the AFC West have also taken a hit, currently at just 10% (down from 25%), while their chances of securing a first-round bye are nearly non-existent, sitting at under 1% (down from 4%). As for the Super Bowl, their odds have dropped to 4% (from 7%).
One week ago, things looked brighter for the Chiefs, but after Sunday’s loss, their chances have taken a significant dip. While they still have better than a 50-50 shot at the postseason, the likelihood of securing a 10th consecutive AFC West title is extremely slim. Additionally, their hopes of earning the AFC’s top seed are all but dashed.
Unfortunately, Kansas City couldn’t help itself over the weekend, and no other team gave it a break. If the season ended today, the Chiefs would be in the AFC’s 9th spot, with just seven teams qualifying for the playoffs. In Week 11, only one of the eight teams ahead of Kansas City — the Los Angeles Chargers — lost, but they were defeated by another team higher in the standings: the Jacksonville Jaguars. To add insult to injury, the Colts were also on their bye week and didn’t lose either.
How the Chiefs Can Still Make the Playoffs
Despite the setbacks, the Chiefs still control their playoff fate. If they win all of their remaining games, they will secure a spot in the postseason. A loss to either the Colts or the Cowboys would only cause the Chiefs to miss the playoffs in roughly 1% of scenarios. A loss to any other AFC team would lower their chances, but even then, the Chiefs would still have a good shot at making the playoffs, with only a 6% chance of missing out.
If the Chiefs were to drop two games, the path to the playoffs would become more difficult, but not impossible. A loss to both Indianapolis and Dallas would still give Kansas City about a 75% chance of making the playoffs. Any other combination of two losses would reduce their odds to roughly 50/50.
How the Chiefs Could Win the AFC West
The AFC West title is no longer fully within Kansas City’s control. However, winning out would give them a 57% chance of securing the division crown. In addition to winning their remaining seven games, the Chiefs would need some help from the other teams in the division. Specifically, the Chargers must lose not only to Kansas City in Week 15 but also to one of the Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, Texans, or Broncos. Denver, meanwhile, would need to lose to Kansas City in their Week 17 rematch and drop at least two more games to teams like the Commanders, Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, or Chargers.
While this scenario is far from impossible, it’s not terribly likely either. If the Chiefs win out, their chances of taking the division would still be around 60%. However, with both Los Angeles and Denver on byes in Week 12, Kansas City will have to wait for a bit longer before they can count on any breathing room.
Can the Chiefs Earn a First-Round Bye?
At this point, it’s safe to say that a first-round bye is almost out of reach for Kansas City. Even if they manage to win all of their remaining games, there’s only about a 4% chance of landing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, meaning the Chiefs are highly likely to start the postseason in the Wild Card round.
The Bottom Line
The Chiefs’ playoff hopes have taken a hit, but they are still very much alive. The team can make the postseason on its own, without needing outside help, and a strong finish could give them a chance to win the division. But that’s the challenge: Kansas City hasn’t made it easy on itself lately, and in the last two weeks, they’ve shown just how difficult it can be to take care of business.
