RM Ranking the 2026 Grammy Album of the Year Nominees, From Long Shots to Front-Runners
The outcome for album of the year at the 2026 Grammys is far from predetermined, but here’s how the field looks at the moment.
Bad Bunny’s recent win for DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS at the Latin Grammys on Nov. 13 immediately sparked speculation: could he repeat that success at the main Grammy Awards on Feb. 1? If he pulls it off, he would be the first artist to earn album of the year with a project recorded entirely in Spanish, and only the third Latin artist to win the honor at all—following Santana (Supernatural) and João Gilberto (with Stan Getz on Getz/Gilberto).
While Bunny is undeniably a top contender, at least two other albums have a strong claim to the trophy. As always, all eight nominees are technically in play—Grammy upsets are common, and there are no previous album of the year winners among this year’s finalists, guaranteeing a first-time champion.
Final-round Grammy voting runs from Dec. 12 to Jan. 5, ahead of the 58th annual ceremony on Feb. 1 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Below is a look at the eight albums vying for album of the year, ranked from the least to the most likely to walk away with the award:
8. Tyler, The Creator
Nominees: Tyler, The Creator (producer), Neal H Pogue, Tyler Okonma & Vic Wainstein (engineers/mixers), Tyler Okonma (songwriter), Mike Bozzi (mastering engineer)
This marks Tyler’s first appearance in the album of the year category, after previously taking home two wins for best rap album. It’s also the first time in Grammy history that three rap albums have landed in the top category—but Tyler’s is probably the longest shot among them. Voters determined to recognize a rap album after a 22-year drought have other, more competitive options this year.
7. Clipse
Nominees include Pharrell Williams (featured artist/producer/engineer/songwriter), Mike Larson, Manny Marroquin, Rob Ulsh, Gene Thornton Jr., Terrence Thornton, Zach Pereyra
With Let God Sort Em Out, their first studio album in nearly 16 years, Clipse reminds the industry that hip-hop isn’t only a young man’s field—Pusha T is 48, Malice is 53. Pharrell’s involvement adds name power, but as with Tyler, the presence of a stronger rap contender dims their odds. If a voter wants a rap album to win, this probably isn’t the one they’ll rally behind.
6. Justin Bieber
Nominees include Eddie Benjamin, Daniel Chetrit, Dijon, Carter Lang, Dylan Wiggins, Felix Byrne, Josh Gudwin, Tobias Jesso Jr., Dale Becker
Bieber earns his third album of the year nomination, continuing his evolution from teen star to an artist who commands respect in both pop and R&B circles. This year, he’s also up for best pop solo performance (“Daisies”) and best R&B performance (“Yukon”)—a rare dual-genre feat he previously achieved in 2021. His collaborators, including Dijon and Tobias Jesso Jr., bring additional prestige.
Still, while an album of the year win feels increasingly plausible for Bieber in the future, this doesn’t appear to be his year.
5. Sabrina Carpenter
Nominees include Jack Antonoff, John Ryan, Amy Allen, Serban Ghenea, Laura Sisk, Evan Smith, Nathan Dantzler, Ruairi O’Flaherty
For the second consecutive year, Carpenter finds herself nominated for album, record, and song of the year—plus best music video this time around. Her playful, bold pop persona is undeniably appealing, and her collaborator Amy Allen is again up for songwriter of the year.
However, there’s another pop contender who is more overdue for a big win, making Carpenter a mid-tier possibility rather than a favorite.
4. Leon Thomas – Cover Story (R&B/Hip-Hop)
Nominees include Freaky Rob, Peter Lee Johnson, D. Phelps, Jean-Marie Horvat, Dave Kutch
The sole R&B—not rap—R&B album among the finalists, Cover Story stands out through its lush, ’70s-inspired title track and Thomas’ respected résumé as a writer, musician, and producer for artists like SZA and Ariana Grande. Simply making the final eight is a major achievement. But while widely admired, the album is unlikely to clinch the win.
3. Lady Gaga
Nominees include Cirkut, Gesaffelstein, Andrew Watt, Serban Ghenea, Paul LaMalfa, Randy Merrill
Despite multiple Big Four nominations over the years, Gaga has never won in any of those headline categories. MAYHEM, driven largely by Cirkut’s production, gives her another strong shot. She’s now 0-for-4 in this category, though one of those nods was for her Tony Bennett collaboration Love for Sale, which voters likely viewed as a tribute to Bennett.
Gaga is inching closer—but another nominee is even more overdue.
2. Bad Bunny
Nominees include MAG, Tainy, La Paciencia, Big Jay, Josh Gudwin, Colin Leonard
As explained by Billboard’s Leila Cobo, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS celebrates Bunny’s Puerto Rican heritage, reinvigorated his bond with the island, and fueled his record-breaking residency—all leading toward his upcoming performance at Super Bowl LX.
The Recording Academy’s decision to invite Latin Grammy voting members to join its voting body could significantly boost Bunny’s chances. Additionally, recent backlash against his Super Bowl halftime booking may motivate voters to show their support through their ballots—similar to the Chicks’ Grammys sweep in 2007, which partly reflected political solidarity.
A win would also make Bunny just the second artist ever to win album of the year the same year they appear in the Super Bowl halftime show (the first was Tony Bennett in 1995).
Whether or not he wins this year, Bunny is getting closer to the trophy—much closer than during his 2023 nomination for Un Verano Sin Ti.
1. Kendrick Lamar
Nominees include Jack Antonoff, Sounwave, Sam Dew, Ink, Matthew Bernard, Laura Sisk, Ruairi O’Flaherty
It has been over two decades since a rap album won album of the year (Outkast in 2004), and a male solo rapper has never won. Many voters feel it’s time to correct that trend.
This is Lamar’s fifth nomination as a lead solo artist for album of the year. With the academy adding nearly 3,000 new voting members—many younger and from diverse backgrounds—the electorate is shifting in a way that could benefit him. Lamar’s recent wins for record and song of the year with “Not Like Us,” and likely strong performance with “luther,” reinforce his momentum.
The presence of two other rap albums could theoretically split votes, as happened in 2018 when DAMN. lost to 24K Magic. But Outkast’s win in 2004, despite competing against Missy Elliott, shows that this hurdle isn’t insurmountable.
With Sounwave also up for producer of the year and Lamar long overdue, GNX currently looks like the album to beat.
